Updated Hurricane Forecast By Annan Boodram

Miami, August 2003: As the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, NOAA forecasters today said they still predict an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, and now call for a total of between 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3 or 4 becoming major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3 or higher). The update is consistent with the ranges stated in the May outlook, which called for 11-15 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. Since May, NOAA scientists have observed atmospheric conditions becoming increasingly pre-disposed to an above-normal hurricane season. These favorable conditions, combined with the active phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal signal, indicate an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is likely. "One might assume the Atlantic hurricane season would be less active than predicted in May since La Niña has not developed, but this is not the case," said Jim Laver, NOAA Climate Prediction Center's director. "In this instance, La Niña is not everything. It is possible to have an above-normal hurricane season without La Niña, just as long as the right atmospheric conditions such as wind and air pressure patterns are in place, as they are now." "Many of the hurricanes this season will develop over the tropical Atlantic and move westward as they strengthen. These hurricanes could pose a threat to the United States and/or the Caribbean Islands," said Gerry Bell, head of NOAA's seasonal hurricane prediction team. Similar seasons, dating back to 1945, have averaged 2-3 landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States and 1-2 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea. Yet, NOAA cautions it is not possible to forecast this far out the total number of landfalling storms or the specific localities that could be impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane this season. So far this season, the NOAA National Hurricane Center has issued advisories on four tropical storms, two of which became hurricanes (Claudette and Danny). For the rest of the season, NOAA expects an additional 8-11 tropical storms, with 5-7 becoming hurricanes, and 3-4 becoming major hurricanes. "We've already seen some significant impacts this year, especially from Hurricane Claudette in Texas. This seasonal forecast implies we must be prepared for much more activity, including some major hurricanes", said Max Mayfield, NOAA National Hurricane Center director. NOAA issues an updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook as the peak of the season approaches. The official hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with peak activity occurring from mid-August through October. Meanwhile the USA's most noted long-range hurricane forecaster says weather conditions on which he based December predictions for the coming hurricane season remain the same. William Gray, a Colorado State University professor and researcher, issued an update to his winter forecast for the hurricane season that started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, and the numbers haven't changed. He and his research team continue to predict 12 named storms, eight of them hurricanes, three of them "intense," meaning Category 3, or sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Last year, there were 12 named Atlantic storms; four became hurricanes, two of them intense. Hurricanes Gustav, Isidore, Kyle and Lili developed in less than a month, between Sept. 8 and Oct. 4. None posed serious threats to the Keys. Gray said the probability of a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm making landfall on the East Coast this year is 48 percent (the average for the past century has been 31 percent). It's 38 percent for the Gulf coast (the average for the past century has been 30 percent). And the Caribbean can expect "above-average major hurricane landfall risk."